France and Argentina favorites to win the World Cup
France and Argentina are the top favorites to win the 2026 World Cup after impressive performances in the group stage. Both countries have won several matches by a wide margin and have star players such as Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi.
In the 2026 World Cup, only two countries have won all their group matches by multiple goals: France and Argentina. It is therefore not surprising that these two national teams are at the top of the odds to win the tournament. France has been seen as favorites since the opening match of the World Cup, in which Spain drew 0-0 against Cape Verde. Currently, France is at +300 at BetMGM, +340 at FanDuel and +350 at DraftKings. This is a slight increase since the last round of group matches.
However, Les Bleus do not have the most favorable draw for the knockout stages, with a match against Sweden and possibly Germany afterwards. Despite this, France have impressed with a very talented attack, consisting of Kylian Mbappé, who has scored four goals so far, Ousmane Dembélé, who scored a hat-trick against Norway and also has four goals, and Michael Olise, who shares the tournament lead with three assists. France is one of three teams to score ten goals in the group stage, along with Germany and the Netherlands.
According to The Athletic's forecasting tool, France has a 20 percent chance of winning the tournament. As for Argentina, the reigning champions, it may appear to be performing better than expected. Lionel Messi leads the race for the Golden Boot with six goals, with his latest goal coming despite not starting the match against Jordan. With the 39-year-old Messi still looking like a superstar, Argentina is a real contender. La Albiceleste have +400 odds to win the tournament, which puts them not far behind France.
The draw helped Argentina climb the odds list, past Spain into second place. Messi's team will face the fairy tale Cape Verde in the next round and then possibly the winner of Australia-Egypt. It would be a huge surprise if Argentina doesn't win both games. Even a quarter-final against Colombia or Switzerland doesn't seem too difficult on paper compared to other possible opponents. Argentina has the shortest odds of all teams to reach the quarter-finals, ranging from -370 to -425.
Next in the odds are Spain and England, both of which have the same odds. Both countries are at +650 (13-to-2) at FanDuel and +700 (7-to-1) at DraftKings and BetMGM. La Roja next face Austria and could face Portugal in the round of 16, followed by a possible quarter-final against the United States or Belgium. Spain has not yet reached its best level, although it defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0. In the goalless draw against Cape Verde and a 1-0 win over Uruguay, Spain were in control, but did not look as threatening in front of goal as France or Argentina. However, Spain are one of two teams that have not conceded a goal so far, along with Mexico. A strong defense will be of great importance in the knockout phase, where the matches will become more exciting.
England are heavy favorites to beat DR Congo and prepare for a fascinating match at the Estadio Azteca against Mexico in the last 16. A quarter-final against Brazil or Norway could follow next. On paper it doesn't seem easydraw. Speaking of Brazil, the Selecao are one of four other teams with odds of 20-to-1 or lower to win the World Cup. Portugal, the Netherlands and Germany are also in that group. Generally speaking, the top eight teams from before the tournament are still the top eight teams in the odds as the knockout stages begin.
As for the Americans, the host nation, they are ninth in the odds, which is a big increase since the start of the tournament. The US is 25-to-1 at BetMGM, 30-to-1 at DraftKings and 35-to-1 at FanDuel. Although the Americans are one of three teams to have won both of their first two matches by multiple goals, along with France and Argentina, US sportsbooks are likely to keep the odds slightly shorter to minimize their risk of a surprise round. According to BetMGM data, the three highest-stakes group matches were the US's, and the Americans are the most bet team to win the tournament. Co-host Mexico is at 50-to-1 at DraftKings and BetMGM, while FanDuel has El Tri at 55-to-1. The longest odds to win the World Cup among the remaining teams belong to Cape Verde, Bosnia and Herzegovina, DR Congo and South Africa. All four teams are at 2,500-to-1 at FanDuel.
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